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Putting some numbers on things
mywillia
 

Posts: 99
Joined: Sep 2011
Location: west yorkshire
Post: #1
Putting some numbers on things

Being a bean counter by trade (an accountant) I thought I'd try and put some numbers together - discuss!
  • According to JLR they expect the Evoque to outsell the Freelander
  • Worldwide sales for all Landrovers Apr - Jun was 50719 cars
  • The UK accounted for 15% of all sales
  • The freelander represented 25.6% of worldwide sales
  • If that product mix is consistent then UK freelander sales were about 2000 units
  • Thererfore lets assume the expected sales of UK Evoques Sept to Nov is 2200 units
  • Lets assume pre-orders were 20,000 worldwide
  • 15% of that = 3000 cars for the UK
  • Someone on here mentions Halewood is producing 350 Evoques per day
  • 15% for the UK market = 52 cars per day
  • Assume the plant is running 6 days per week
  • Thats 312 UK cars / week
  • Production started 4th July so lets say 13 weeks production to today
  • Total cars produced for UK market to date is 4056
  • Pre-Order + Sept orders (1/3rd of qtr estimate) = 3733 cars
  • Every dealer gets three cars = 450 cars for showrooms (based on 150 dealerships)
  • Shortfall in production =127 cars (4056-450-3733)
  • Backlog = 2 days!
Either demand is way over the forecasts or production is nowhere near 350 units / day. Just my thoughts, feel free to pull the figures to pieces

Delivered:-
Firenze Red Dynamic SD4 Coupe Manual with Lux pack
Verve Leather
20" Shadow Chrome Alloys
Privacy Glass
Heated Steering Wheel
(This post was last modified: 21-10-2011 05:21pm by mywillia.)
21-10-2011 05:18pm
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mark_n
 

Posts: 1,720
Joined: Jul 2011
Location: London
Post: #2
RE: Putting some numbers on things

Yes, but when I visited Halewood, they were only running at 66% of capacity, or at least only producing two thirds of the cars intended. Seems likely things have got worse since then.

Mark

Evoque was great, now in an RRS SVR
21-10-2011 05:30pm
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rchrdleigh
 

Posts: 282
Joined: Sep 2011
Location: England
Post: #3
RE: Putting some numbers on things

Pre-orders for Evoque as at mid-September were 30000. As 20000 was reported to be more than the first years planned production having 30000 pre-orders could well be a major problem for LR.
Order a new FL2 built to order now and you'll be lucky to see it before March 2012. Order a new Evoque built to order and you'll be looking at delivery in June/July 2012.
Land Rover Experience Centres usually change their vehicles every 6-9 months currently they're running vehicles well beyond that as LR can't supply them with replacements which means that they're still running 2011 MY when clients are turning up in 2012 MY's.
21-10-2011 05:31pm
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griff
 

Posts: 961
Joined: Mar 2011
Location: West Sussex
Post: #4
RE: Putting some numbers on things

Trouble is they only have 500 xenon headlights Laughing
Great post.

Arrived: SD4 Prestige Auto Coupe with Lux pack. Ipanema Sand with Black Panoramic Roof
Ambience Interior with Macassa wood.

Now a Jag XFR Kyanite Blue - wow what power.
At home and superb.
21-10-2011 05:32pm
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XFullFatTim
Bat wielding forum enforcer

Posts: 9,204
Joined: Oct 2010
Location: Somewhere between here and there.
Post: #5
RE: Putting some numbers on things

Now that the SD/TD4 motors are allegedly being held back for the Jaguar XF production will be worse.................. I assume those figures are for "completed" cars.

Since June 2018 I’m XRRSTim as a 2018MY Mini Countryman Cooper S E All4 PHEV is now charging on my drive
Previously owned
- 2015 RRSport L494 HSE Dynamic SDv6
- 2014 5 Door SD4 Dynamic Plus Lux
- 2011 SD4 Auto Coupe Lux Plus
And 7 other Land Rover products since 1995.
Still on my drive - 1996 TDi300 Defender 90 County
(This post was last modified: 21-10-2011 05:32pm by XFullFatTim.)
21-10-2011 05:32pm
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Daigriff
 

Posts: 656
Joined: Apr 2011
Location: North Wales
Post: #6
RE: Putting some numbers on things

They are miles behind on production and nowhere near the forecasted daily production. Plus the sad death of one of the workers, quality issues(mentioned on here somewhere) plus xenon, doors, pano roof probs...that's why deliveries are being pushed back. They were Far too optimistic in my opinion.

Arrived 16th December 2011: 5 door Prestige SD4 auto in Barolo black with ambience interior, pano roof, privacy and 20" style 6 alloys.Very Happy
21-10-2011 05:35pm
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XFullFatTim
Bat wielding forum enforcer

Posts: 9,204
Joined: Oct 2010
Location: Somewhere between here and there.
Post: #7
RE: Putting some numbers on things

Disco3 and RRS were in very short supply when they were launched and they had no supply problems. At one stage a factory build RRS had a lead in time of 11 months! This situation isn't a new thing to Land Rover, the parts supply problems are though.

Since June 2018 I’m XRRSTim as a 2018MY Mini Countryman Cooper S E All4 PHEV is now charging on my drive
Previously owned
- 2015 RRSport L494 HSE Dynamic SDv6
- 2014 5 Door SD4 Dynamic Plus Lux
- 2011 SD4 Auto Coupe Lux Plus
And 7 other Land Rover products since 1995.
Still on my drive - 1996 TDi300 Defender 90 County
(This post was last modified: 21-10-2011 05:38pm by XFullFatTim.)
21-10-2011 05:37pm
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mywillia
 

Posts: 99
Joined: Sep 2011
Location: west yorkshire
Post: #8
RE: Putting some numbers on things

All based on info from tata motors. Interestingly they do mention shortage of engines

As per Kenneth Gregor CFO of JLR
"Actually, although the UK industry has softened a bit, we do continue to see good demand for
the Freelander and Discovery which are the two models that are lower year-to-year and broadly
the reason for those volumes being down is broadly supply constraints from diesel engines for
the Freelander and to lesser extent to Discovery"

The FL2 shares the same engine as the Evoque does it not?

Also if every dealer where to be allocated an order pool based on the forecast then assuming every dealer is targeted the same volume each would have an order pool of 5 cars per month. (2200/150=15 cars per qtr). That mix is probably way out but it shows that it wouldn't take much for a dealer to go way over their allocation especially in an affluent area. Maybe me living in Bradford helps my order but we'll see.

Delivered:-
Firenze Red Dynamic SD4 Coupe Manual with Lux pack
Verve Leather
20" Shadow Chrome Alloys
Privacy Glass
Heated Steering Wheel
(This post was last modified: 21-10-2011 05:43pm by mywillia.)
21-10-2011 05:42pm
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Blackseries
 

Posts: 749
Joined: Dec 2010
Location: UK
Post: #9
RE: Putting some numbers on things

(21-10-2011 05:42pm)mywillia Wrote:  Also if every dealer where to be allocated an order pool based on the forecast then assuming every dealer is targeted the same volume each would have an order pool of 5 cars per month. (2200/150=15 cars per qtr). That mix is probably way out but it shows that it wouldn't take much for a dealer to go way over their allocation especially in an affluent area. Maybe me living in Bradford helps my order but we'll see.

Mind you if those figures are close it will do wonders for our residuals! .... when we finally get our cars

SD4 Prestige Sport Auto 5 Door, Sumatra Black with Ambience interior, Magneride AD, 20" Style 6 Wheels, Panoramic Roof, Surround Cameras, Electric Tailgate, ADRVM.......& Heated Steering Wheel......Gorgeous
21-10-2011 06:14pm
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mark_n
 

Posts: 1,720
Joined: Jul 2011
Location: London
Post: #10
RE: Putting some numbers on things

It's as if they didn't see this coming.

Mark

Evoque was great, now in an RRS SVR
(This post was last modified: 22-10-2011 12:48am by mark_n.)
21-10-2011 06:28pm
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