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+--- Thread: Putting some numbers on things (/Thread-Putting-some-numbers-on-things)
Putting some numbers on things - mywillia - 21-10-2011 05:18pm
Being a bean counter by trade (an accountant) I thought I'd try and put some numbers together - discuss!
- According to JLR they expect the Evoque to outsell the Freelander
- Worldwide sales for all Landrovers Apr - Jun was 50719 cars
- The UK accounted for 15% of all sales
- The freelander represented 25.6% of worldwide sales
- If that product mix is consistent then UK freelander sales were about 2000 units
- Thererfore lets assume the expected sales of UK Evoques Sept to Nov is 2200 units
- Lets assume pre-orders were 20,000 worldwide
- 15% of that = 3000 cars for the UK
- Someone on here mentions Halewood is producing 350 Evoques per day
- 15% for the UK market = 52 cars per day
- Assume the plant is running 6 days per week
- Thats 312 UK cars / week
- Production started 4th July so lets say 13 weeks production to today
- Total cars produced for UK market to date is 4056
- Pre-Order + Sept orders (1/3rd of qtr estimate) = 3733 cars
- Every dealer gets three cars = 450 cars for showrooms (based on 150 dealerships)
- Shortfall in production =127 cars (4056-450-3733)
- Backlog = 2 days!
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mark_n - 21-10-2011 05:30pm
Yes, but when I visited Halewood, they were only running at 66% of capacity, or at least only producing two thirds of the cars intended. Seems likely things have got worse since then.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - rchrdleigh - 21-10-2011 05:31pm
Pre-orders for Evoque as at mid-September were 30000. As 20000 was reported to be more than the first years planned production having 30000 pre-orders could well be a major problem for LR.
Order a new FL2 built to order now and you'll be lucky to see it before March 2012. Order a new Evoque built to order and you'll be looking at delivery in June/July 2012.
Land Rover Experience Centres usually change their vehicles every 6-9 months currently they're running vehicles well beyond that as LR can't supply them with replacements which means that they're still running 2011 MY when clients are turning up in 2012 MY's.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - griff - 21-10-2011 05:32pm
Trouble is they only have 500 xenon headlights
Great post.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - XFullFatTim - 21-10-2011 05:32pm
Now that the SD/TD4 motors are allegedly being held back for the Jaguar XF production will be worse.................. I assume those figures are for "completed" cars.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - Daigriff - 21-10-2011 05:35pm
They are miles behind on production and nowhere near the forecasted daily production. Plus the sad death of one of the workers, quality issues(mentioned on here somewhere) plus xenon, doors, pano roof probs...that's why deliveries are being pushed back. They were Far too optimistic in my opinion.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - XFullFatTim - 21-10-2011 05:37pm
Disco3 and RRS were in very short supply when they were launched and they had no supply problems. At one stage a factory build RRS had a lead in time of 11 months! This situation isn't a new thing to Land Rover, the parts supply problems are though.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mywillia - 21-10-2011 05:42pm
All based on info from tata motors. Interestingly they do mention shortage of engines
As per Kenneth Gregor CFO of JLR
"Actually, although the UK industry has softened a bit, we do continue to see good demand for
the Freelander and Discovery which are the two models that are lower year-to-year and broadly
the reason for those volumes being down is broadly supply constraints from diesel engines for
the Freelander and to lesser extent to Discovery"
The FL2 shares the same engine as the Evoque does it not?
Also if every dealer where to be allocated an order pool based on the forecast then assuming every dealer is targeted the same volume each would have an order pool of 5 cars per month. (2200/150=15 cars per qtr). That mix is probably way out but it shows that it wouldn't take much for a dealer to go way over their allocation especially in an affluent area. Maybe me living in Bradford helps my order but we'll see.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - Blackseries - 21-10-2011 06:14pm
(21-10-2011 05:42pm)mywillia Wrote: Also if every dealer where to be allocated an order pool based on the forecast then assuming every dealer is targeted the same volume each would have an order pool of 5 cars per month. (2200/150=15 cars per qtr). That mix is probably way out but it shows that it wouldn't take much for a dealer to go way over their allocation especially in an affluent area. Maybe me living in Bradford helps my order but we'll see.
Mind you if those figures are close it will do wonders for our residuals! .... when we finally get our cars
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mark_n - 21-10-2011 06:28pm
It's as if they didn't see this coming.