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+--- Thread: Putting some numbers on things (/Thread-Putting-some-numbers-on-things)
RE: Putting some numbers on things - PhilSkill - 23-10-2011 08:17pm
Thanks to Berlin for some great data upto 30 sept,
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RE: Putting some numbers on things - berlin2011 - 23-10-2011 08:33pm
Nice - interesting that the last week of Aug and the first week of Sept seems to have some lulls of nothingness happening and then again some drops in the last two weeks of Sept.
It may look insignificant that but those flatfish lines can easily add up to a 3,000 or 4,000 car delay which at the production rates they are being made is easily three weeks backlog.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - PhilSkill - 23-10-2011 08:46pm
I've added a calculation of units per day and put an exponential trend line in orange with units on right hand side, so they started around 100 units per day and have ramped up to 280 units per day, as an average, there were days production ramped to 500 and back down to 24!
All depending on the accuracy of the entered data on the Topix system... which may be batch entered?
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RE: Putting some numbers on things - Acwats - 23-10-2011 08:51pm
Great work guys.
Please keep the data coming in
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mark_n - 23-10-2011 10:00pm
Good job, Phil, what does the unsmoothed production by day look like? Probably wild variation until we get more data points.
Edit: Sorry, just re-read your post, the smoothing is useful!
This ties in with the 66% utilisation I saw when I visited. They seem to be a long way off from producing at full capacity.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mywillia - 23-10-2011 10:11pm
Don't forget that there was a bank holiday at the end of August. That may account for the dip in production at that point and then the accident on the 26th Sept
The other factor now is dealer volumes. If some dealers have massively oversold their allocations that could explain some of the wildly differing quoted delivery dates. I 'll start the ball rolling for a chart of dealers v sales. I ordered from Farnell Bradford on 12 Sept and have an estimated delivery of 1st Jan
Mark
RE: Putting some numbers on things - PhilSkill - 23-10-2011 10:14pm
Additional Data points from Berlin, thanks, plus the raw units per day in red which is interesting mark
Shows a serious drop off mid august and early sept, that's done the damage as far as deliveries is concerned
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RE: Putting some numbers on things - mywillia - 23-10-2011 10:29pm
Interesting that the highest output was just before the accident and that it's dropped back to consistently half of that peak since. Is this a result of a partial plant closure? I can appreciate why LR would not want to use this as a reason for delays. Respect to all the guys at Halewood for maintaining the output. You've got to ask if the pressure to deliver our cars was a causal factor in the accident. Sobering thought for the day!
RE: Putting some numbers on things - mark_n - 23-10-2011 11:32pm
Most car plants will shut down for a couple of weeks in July or August for holidays. MAybe it's this which is responsible for the fall off in production during this time.
Interesting results Phil, I expect more data points will help smooth things out but until they do, your smoothed graph seems on the money.
RE: Putting some numbers on things - PhilSkill - 30-10-2011 07:49pm
Update with a bit more from October, and improved formula for units/day
Looks like October's not been such a good month for build rate... probably more FL2's on the production line
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